Publications 

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​​​“Energy Resources and the Risk of Conflict in Shared River Basins" With Sara Mitchell. Forthcoming Journal of Peace Research. 

Abstract

This study examines the effect of energy resources on the chances for militarized conflict, water related conflict and cooperation events, and cooperative river treaties between pairs of states on shared international river basins. We examine trade-offs that riparian states can make between energy resources such as oil or natural gas and fresh water resources. Integrating upstream and downstream states’ geographical position in a river basin with energy resource information, we examine four related scenarios of states sharing rivers: 1) Joint Energy where both upstream and downstream countries have energy resources, 2) Downstream Energy where only the downstream state has energy resources, 3) Upstream Energy where only an upstream country has energy resources, and 4) No Energy. Theoretically, we argue that Downstream Energy dyads are most likely to find cooperative solutions to conflicts over shared river resources because downstream states can offer oil and natural gas side payments to upstream states in exchange for greater water supplies. Empirical analyses of dyadic data in shared river basin dyads from 1945-2001 provides strong support for the theory. Riparian cooperation through river treaties and diplomacy is best achieved in Downstream Energy dyads, where the downstream states have energy resources that can be traded for water resources with upstream states. Militarized conflict and water related conflict events are most likely in Joint Energy dyads. Case illustrations from the Aral Sea and Ganges river basins are used to demonstrate the theoretical arguments.

“Politics of Managing Economic Crisis: A Comparative Analysis of Korea and Japan."
Social Science Studies 19(1):164-192, 2011. (Institute of Social Sciences, Sogang University, South Korea)

 “The Identity of American Political Science: Research and Education in the United States" With Chang Jae Baik.
Journal of Korean Politics 17(2):245-271, 2008. (The Center for Social Sciences in Seoul National University, South Korea)

Works Under Review

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​“Building Reputation: Leader Tenure and Combatant Behavior in Civil War."  With Alyssa Prorok.
(Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Peace Research ) ​

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of state and rebel leader tenure on the conduct of civil war. It argues that reputations are leader-specific in civil war, and that leaders have incentives to invest in reputation building because of the uncertainty and repeated interactions that characterize civil war environments. As a result, new leaders, early in their tenures, will seek to quickly build a reputation for strength and resolve in order to maintain or improve their bargaining positions with the opponent, and in an effort to improve their prospects for political survival. Thus, new state and rebel leaders will ratchet up violence, increasing the severity of conflict early in their tenures. This effect is attenuated by the new leader’s ability increase violence; uncertainty and organizational vulnerability in the aftermath of a decapitation attack by the opponent will limit a new leader’s ability to ratchet up violence early in his/her tenure. These theoretical arguments are tested using original data on leaders in civil wars and existing data on civil war battle deaths between 1989 and 2009. Results support the hypothesized relationship: battle deaths are significantly higher early in both state and rebel leaders’ tenures, particularly if those leaders’ predecessors were not exiled, imprisoned, or killed by the opponent. These results are consistent across a variety of robustness checks.

Works in Progress

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​“Resource Dependence, Energy Price, and Interstate Conflict."
                 Current draft will be presented at: Peace Science Society International north American Meeting (2017) and International Studies Association Midwest
                 Annual Conference (2017); Previous draft presented at: Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference (2017)

Abstract

This project shows that the effect of resource dependence on interstate conflict is contingent on natural resource prices. By focusing on riparian countries who share international rivers and energy resources' prices, e.g. oil and gas price in a global market, the empirical results show a price-contingent effect of resource dependence on interstate dispute.

​“Water Resource Dependence and Domestic Conflict and Cooperation."
                 Current draft will be presented at: International Studies Annual Convention (2018)

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between a state’s dependence on water resource and domestic water-related conflict and cooperation. Facing with similar water quantity/quality problems, why some states experience more domestic instability and conflict while others are more cooperative and successful to resolve their water problems? I argue that the level of a state’s dependence on water resource influence domestic water conflict and cooperation. By using the Water-Related Intrastate Conflict and Cooperation event dataset and an original measure of a state’s dependence on water resource in shared river basins, this study examines the effect of water resource dependence on the potential for domestic conflict and cooperation that are related to water issues. The results show that as a state is more dependent on water resource, it is more likely to experience domestic water-related cooperation, such as an improvement with respect to water quantity/quality. In addition, higher level of water resource dependence decreases the severity of domestic water-related conflict.

​​“Water-Related Events, Natural Disaster, and Social Conflict in Africa."
                Previous drafts presented at: Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference (2017),  American Political Science Association Annual
                Meeting (2015), International Studies Association Midwest Annual Conference (2015)

Abstract

This study focuses on how water-related domestic events and natural disasters affect internal social stability in Africa. By using the Water-Related Intrastate Conflict and Cooperation (WARICC) event dataset and Social Conflict Analysis Database (SCAD), the empirical analyses show that water-related domestic events affect social stability and internal violence in Africa, while natural disasters do not significantly influence social instability.